facebook twitter instagram linkedin google youtube vimeo tumblr yelp rss email podcast phone blog external search brokercheck brokercheck Play Pause
Weekly Market Update with Brian Ransom 15 July 2022 Thumbnail

Weekly Market Update with Brian Ransom 15 July 2022

Welcome to the weekly market update from Signature Wealth Management. I’m Brian Ransom, Research Director from Signature Wealth and here’s what happened in the market this week.

The S&P 500 pulled back a bit this week but remains above the higher low established a week ago. Down volume selling has been fairly significant so it would not be surprising if this line does not hold in the coming days. Peak-to-trough, the market is still down 24%.

In the news this week, China recorded its slowest economic growth rate since the onset of the pandemic. Retail sales continue to increase month-over-month despite rapidly increasing prices. And inflation once again increased to 9.1% in the month of June.

There is a distinct possibility that the June CPI reading is the final peak for inflation. Primarily because commodity prices, shown here, are largely down over the last 3 months but A. haven’t fed through the rest of the economy yet, and B. A bulk of the declines happened over the last two weeks as the economy begins to price in a recession.

Since the June CPI reading, short term 2-year treasury bonds sold off causing a spike in short term interest rates. Subsequently, the yield on the 2-year treasury bond is now well above the 10-year causing a yield curve inversion. As discussed in previous videos, and inversion of the yield curve is a signal from the bond market of an upcoming recession.

Now, this spread is not always accurate at predicting upcoming recessions. However, the spread between the 10-year yield and the 3-month yield is now only 64 basis points. This spread, if inverted, is a far more accurate predictor of upcoming recessions.

Likewise, the stock market is projecting a similar economic environment. Staples relative to cyclical discretionary stocks continues to show a significant amount of strength indicating that equity investors are very risk-averse at the moment. This graph would need to show a reversal for the stock market to begin a recovery.

Despite all the evidence of continued volatility in the stock and bond market as well as a distinct possibility of an upcoming recession, investors need to balance the risk of a further drawdown vs the risk of missing out on the beginning of the recovery. As discussed in last week’s video, the market has already priced in a significant amount of the average recessionary bear market downside of -34% and thus the bulk of the losses in the stock market have already been realized with the S&P down 24%.

For more information on this topic or a variety of other topics including market updates, financial planning, and wealth management please visit our vlog at signaturewmg.com/vlog. If you like our content, feel free to share it with friends and family. And don’t forget to smash that subscribe button!


1.FactSet Research Systems. (n.d.). S&P 500 (Interactive Charts). Retrieved July 15, 2022, from FactSet Database.

2.Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y, July 14, 2022.

3.FactSet Research Systems. (n.d.). 10 year yield & 6 month yield, US treasury yield index (Interactive Charts). Retrieved July 15, 2022, from FactSet Database.

4.FactSet Research Systems. (n.d.). S&P 500 equal weight Staples relative to S&P 500 equal weight Consumer Discretionary (Interactive Charts). Retrieved July 15, 2022, from FactSet Database.

5.JP Morgan Asset Management. Market Insights: Guide to the markets 3Q 2022. Updated June 30, 2022. Retrieved from https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/?gclid=CjwKCAjwq5-WBhB7EiwAl-HEks4MiwrMFtDkQqAUEnPvw5mga4ZSSHzzU-EPaxDJ3HJHHt6UPAqavhoCq90QAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Signature Wealth Management Group is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. Signature Wealth only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. 


Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change. 


Information contained herein does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information. 

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.


The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.


Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and they involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The use of words such as “will”, “may”, “could”, “should”, and “would”, as well as any other statement that necessarily depends on future events, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. 


Information is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein.

The S&P U.S. Style Indices measure the performance of U.S. equities fully or partially categorized as either growth or value stocks, as determined by Style Scores for each security. The Style series is weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization (FMC), and the Pure Style index series is weighted by Style Score subject to the rules described in Index Construction.

All information presented prior to an index’s Launch Date is hypothetical (back-tested), not actual performance. The Index returns shown do not represent the results of actual trading of investable assets/securities. S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC maintains the Index and calculates the Index levels and performance shown or discussed, but does not manage actual assets. Please refer to the methodology paper for the Index, available at www.spdji.com for more details about the index, including the manner in which it is rebalanced, the timing of such rebalancing, criteria for additions and deletions, as well as all index calculations.