The market movement over the last couple of months can really be summarized by one graph. In my humble opinion, this is the most important graph in all of finance right now and the market is just now starting to digest its implications. This is graph of the 10-year treasury bond yield that broke its multi-decade downward trading pattern back in 2022 and continues to rise here in 2023. Stocks and bonds, farms and businesses, homeowners and renters, credit card owners and issuers, student borrowers and universities, Congressmen and their [...]

Big bifurcation in momentum between the 10-year treasury yield (purple) and equal weight consumer staples (blue)! Staples are typically low volatility stocks with predictable earnings. But the rapid increase in the 10-year yield has forced a sell-off on both an absolute (top graph) and relative-to-S&P500 basis (bottom graph). Source: FactSet Research Systems. (n.d.). Equal weight consumer staples vs 10-year treasury yield benchmark (Interactive Charts). Retrieved October 12, 2023, from FactSet Database. This material is for informational or educational purposes only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No [...]

The time period between the peak of the Dotcom Bubble in 2000 and the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009 is widely considered the worst period of investment returns since the Great Depression. During that time period, the Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 70% of value and the economy is still reeling from the consequences of the GFC today. Common sense would say that investing at the top of the Dotcom Bubble would be a terrible decision, right? Well, it actually depends on how you invest. If you [...]

Don’t forget about the dividend! This is one of the most important investing principles as dividends add value to a portfolio.  They can provide a cushion for investors when growth of principal can be hard to come by, they can enhance total return over a long period of time by compounding reinvestments, and they can be the source of income for retirees who choose to live off the dividend rather than draw down principal. Since the beginning of the millennium, dividends reinvested into the S&P 500 are responsible for 33% [...]