The market movement over the last couple of months can really be summarized by one graph. In my humble opinion, this is the most important graph in all of finance right now and the market is just now starting to digest its implications. This is graph of the 10-year treasury bond yield that broke its multi-decade downward trading pattern back in 2022 and continues to rise here in 2023. Stocks and bonds, farms and businesses, homeowners and renters, credit card owners and issuers, student borrowers and universities, Congressmen and their [...]

Big bifurcation in momentum between the 10-year treasury yield (purple) and equal weight consumer staples (blue)! Staples are typically low volatility stocks with predictable earnings. But the rapid increase in the 10-year yield has forced a sell-off on both an absolute (top graph) and relative-to-S&P500 basis (bottom graph). Source: FactSet Research Systems. (n.d.). Equal weight consumer staples vs 10-year treasury yield benchmark (Interactive Charts). Retrieved October 12, 2023, from FactSet Database. This material is for informational or educational purposes only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No [...]